The first quarter next year, prices began to fall and crash. Soon as he needs to hear this cry on the spot, room crying, finally, property developers have cried.
Why did he cry?
Because, presumably: adjusting will continue into next year. If that's all right, until 2018 is not.
This means that real estate developers still have to get through.
So where does this word come from? Who have the guts and patting his chest say it does?
1
On November 21, well-known international investment bank Goldman (Goldman Sachs), Wang Yi, an analyst, wrote in a report on Monday, as more and more potential buyers in cash after the Government control the real estate market in the near future, developers and real estate agents is expected to begin in February or March next year will be cut.
This is called "Goldman Sachs Gao Hua" of the securities company's report said they investigated cities of Shanghai, Nanjing and Suzhou, policy has now caused the following effects:
A) investigation of Goldman Sachs Gao Hua four projects were delayed their new flats for sale, characteristically because they want to compare real estate prices rose in the first half;
B) Nanjing Government has set price limits in each region;
C) Suzhou at the end will not publish any new advance permits.
Report concludes: developers and agents say, wait wait-and-see mood strengthening in recent weeks, falling prices expected to gradually form, so in February or March next year will usher in a price cut for the first time.
Also, "said Hong Kong-listed mainland property developers share prices already reflected negative market prospects, but due to lack of incentives, stock prices or remain at current low levels. ”
Government data released, said House prices in cities have not risen or dropped. Of course, these data must be true; but the data is realized by highly administrative intervention, that is, developers of prices by the Government designed to sell the House.
Therefore, such data may not be able to fully reflect the market. But it doesn't matter if we see every day in the media is to news of the price cut, then we will come to believe that this anticipated. This is almost "Goebbels effect".
With the data out of the market in October, you may already know, turning point under pressure from the administration of the property market has really emerged. Then, people will continue to wait and see cash waiting, insufficient blood supply, a real estate developer also impatient, starting price. It is not so abstruse reports will be able to understand it.
2
Do you think just prices drop out? NO!
Strategists Charles Himmelberg of Goldman's first notice the economic phenomenon that will occur next year, in addition to housing prices to drop, there are ten surprises waiting for us. I take them out, so that we can prepare for the future.
Of course, some of these surprises is "scared":
1. return on stocks rebound
Goldman Sachs investor return next year is expected to be picked up slightly but still remains low. Best engine of growth will be in Asia stock markets (excluding Japan), the return of 12.5%, far higher than this year's 3.8%. However, the Japan market rates of return or next year-3.7%, lower than this year's 5.2%.
2. United States financial speed
United States President-elect Trump stresses will increase infrastructure spending, weaken the mentioned trade protectionism and the expulsion of immigration policy before the election, brings to market the "risk on" emotions, and look forward to fiscal stimulus to spur local economic growth.
3. the outbreak of the trade war may not be
Goldman Sachs believes there is no risk of a trade war, expect some trade agreements, such as the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA) negotiations will only focus on improving United States manufacturing prospects, although Trump threatened to impose punitive tariffs of foreign, but more war.
4. the rebound in emerging market
Recent emerging market pressure for Trump was elected, but not until next year, United States economy, and when interest rates rise, assets such as emerging market stocks will do well.
5. the currency devaluated to next year
Devaluation of the Renminbi artificially, such as sudden devaluation last August will continue next year, expected offshore over the next 12 months fell to 7.3 against one US dollar, its depreciation forecasts bigger than markets expected.
Goldman's full cut the Yuan-dollar forecast: 3 months, 6 months and 12 months in the offshore renminbi-dollar forecast down to 7.00, 7.15, and 7.3, respectively, 6.7, 6.8 and before 7.00. In addition, the end of 2018 and 2019 in the Bank at the end of the Yuan-dollar forecast down to 7.6 and 7.65, original 7.3; 2020 in the Bank at the end of the Yuan is expected to be demoted to 7.70. Recommends the adoption of 12-month non-deliverable far meeting long on USD/offshore, price target to 7.3, stop to 6.75.
6. Japan introduced innovative monetary policy
Japan's Central Bank introduced the "yield curve" system, predicts there will be a wave of innovation in monetary policy, is expected to have more similar to "loan" scheme out.
7. the American out of the recession
As the global economy was on solid ground and oil prices since February lows, American will go out next year, "declining revenue" p 500 companies operating profit per share next year, up 10%, and p 500 target of 2,200 points by the end of next year.
8. developed country inflation heating up
In addition to United States, but expected from China, Japan, and Europe will increase public expenditure, these potential inflationary pressures in the economy picked up.
9. credit default control
Although weaker corporate balance sheets, but next year United States recession risks are low, expected default rate will be controlled.
10. fed tightening
Taking into account the Trump promises a massive fiscal stimulus, the Fed will need to speed up the tightening in response to financial market conditions to relax. However, whether conditions in the financial markets could ease next year is still unknown.
3
You might say: "Oh, this is expert analysis, the experts do not represent State policy, want the Government to be trusted! ”
Since you asked in good faith, then I will relent and say to you:
Policies for regulating the housing market will continue into next year, or even 2018
National Bureau of statistics Liu Jianwei of senior statisticians noted that the city, with the adjusted credit policies have been around since October, November 21 the Central Bank cut interest rates policy overlay effects had a positive impact on real estate sales, November 70 cities in newly-built commercial housing turnover in October on amplification, high for the year, further narrowing in the decline in prices. But because of the higher base of house prices over the same period last year, prices in November year remained on a downtrend.
This is the truth, data support, credible guarantee!
Experienced many "Wolf", whether it is real estate companies or individuals, have been very complacent. "In the history of the most restrictive regulation", many people disdain said, this is just a "crying wolf". Indeed, in the past, none of the data does not indicate, control is adjusted higher and higher. However, this very calm and sometimes foolish and even scary. Longer term, China's stock market is up, but if you peak last year buy now must be very painful.
Don't always talk about acid again!
Each regulation is a shuffling, dealing with the right business will become more powerful and unable to support businesses, then see the next spring. How to survive the winter, for it is life and death issues.
This regulation is the central deployment, will not end soon.
930 after regulation, someone throws down China's economy, real estate is the mainstay of the economy and industry, therefore, the regulation will soon be of the opinion. This view with the stock market crash last year ended a month or two just looking forward to the next bull market--guilty of infantilism.
First, this regulation is a unified plan of action
By 2013, market regulation by the central level uniform policies and enforcement. This allows step, powerful, disadvantage is that victimizes the innocent. Therefore, after 2013, housing authority and responsibility was delegated to the place, so that by the policy address.
However, China's economy is "County competition" (also known as the "local competition"), a well-known economist Zhang Wuchang think County between the County competition in land use is the root cause of China's rapid economic growth.
Under this structure, the Chief Executive is tasked with two roles: one is the economic development function, the second is social management function, but in the past more than 30 years, the former is usually greater than the latter. Therefore, the Chief Executive is in fact political entrepreneurs.
After the tax-sharing system, the rights and responsibilities of local government wrong, local economic development and no money, only land. Steven said that no money from land today in Shenzhen, not found on the map of the world.
Therefore, good intentions--because of the decentralization of power to local governance. However, for much-needed funds to develop the local economy, to facilitate their promotion of political entrepreneurs, control cut hands and feet. Previously, some hot cities also issued a number of policies, but stay in the spare itch, is a good example. Therefore, the subsequent 21 cities have announced control-intensive policies, there is no uniform deployment, is impossible.
From the central level regulation in the past period, this regulation will last about 2 years time. Since 2008, we've gone three rounds by loosening, tighten, then relax cause real estate short cycle, each time the cycle is about 2 years.
Second, turnover has fallen sharply, prices will drop
Market regulation has been like "ultimate measure"-just need to scoop out only a short boil. Therefore, the restriction of credit policy limit, there are people questioning – the purchase price policy became the early warning signals, limit price gains guaranteed token.
However, objectively speaking, if there is no regulation, perhaps House prices rose even faster. At present, if seen from the transaction data, this regulation has already on the property market cooling or freezing effect. And policy enforcement are strengthened, without relaxing trend.
Centaline property research center statistics show, October 1-30th, 22 cities affected by the new deal, markedly dropped in trading volume, or 40% or so. Total 54 cities nationwide agency real estate residential 270164, 15% less than in September, and after entering the November volume to shrink further.
Regulation effects of a delay. Given that this regulation is the most severe since the 2011, affecting the widest range of real estate at a time to tighten regulation, strength, is expected to have a greater impact. Along with control measures, further cooling of the property market.
4
Please keep until 2018 to prepare.
Son made the most mistakes upside down whipped, not beat him to death, but the son is too naughty, always sticking to end. Real estate is the son. So, when again favored son?
Some experts believe that real estate is the pillar industry of China, given the current economic trend of an l, long suffered by the housing downturn only a maximum of 9 months, and 6 months later, control the negative effect will be large, so by March next year will maintain control of highhanded, finished March held two sessions in April, will start to loose ... ...
Act of love without really Ah!
5
For developers, deadlocked with the Government there is not an option. After all, now is the time, price is not an economic problem, but a symbol of politics. When will exit with an aura of administrative intervention? Only when prices really drop.
If developers want a healthy and stable property market, it can only be cut.
Good at surrendering, leaving behind a Millennium old town Prague. You finish it.
Because, presumably: adjusting will continue into next year. If that's all right, until 2018 is not.
This means that real estate developers still have to get through.
So where does this word come from? Who have the guts and patting his chest say it does?
1
On November 21, well-known international investment bank Goldman (Goldman Sachs), Wang Yi, an analyst, wrote in a report on Monday, as more and more potential buyers in cash after the Government control the real estate market in the near future, developers and real estate agents is expected to begin in February or March next year will be cut.
This is called "Goldman Sachs Gao Hua" of the securities company's report said they investigated cities of Shanghai, Nanjing and Suzhou, policy has now caused the following effects:
B) Nanjing Government has set price limits in each region;
C) Suzhou at the end will not publish any new advance permits.
Report concludes: developers and agents say, wait wait-and-see mood strengthening in recent weeks, falling prices expected to gradually form, so in February or March next year will usher in a price cut for the first time.
Also, "said Hong Kong-listed mainland property developers share prices already reflected negative market prospects, but due to lack of incentives, stock prices or remain at current low levels. ”
Government data released, said House prices in cities have not risen or dropped. Of course, these data must be true; but the data is realized by highly administrative intervention, that is, developers of prices by the Government designed to sell the House.
Therefore, such data may not be able to fully reflect the market. But it doesn't matter if we see every day in the media is to news of the price cut, then we will come to believe that this anticipated. This is almost "Goebbels effect".
With the data out of the market in October, you may already know, turning point under pressure from the administration of the property market has really emerged. Then, people will continue to wait and see cash waiting, insufficient blood supply, a real estate developer also impatient, starting price. It is not so abstruse reports will be able to understand it.
2
Do you think just prices drop out? NO!
Strategists Charles Himmelberg of Goldman's first notice the economic phenomenon that will occur next year, in addition to housing prices to drop, there are ten surprises waiting for us. I take them out, so that we can prepare for the future.
Of course, some of these surprises is "scared":
1. return on stocks rebound
Goldman Sachs investor return next year is expected to be picked up slightly but still remains low. Best engine of growth will be in Asia stock markets (excluding Japan), the return of 12.5%, far higher than this year's 3.8%. However, the Japan market rates of return or next year-3.7%, lower than this year's 5.2%.
2. United States financial speed
United States President-elect Trump stresses will increase infrastructure spending, weaken the mentioned trade protectionism and the expulsion of immigration policy before the election, brings to market the "risk on" emotions, and look forward to fiscal stimulus to spur local economic growth.
3. the outbreak of the trade war may not be
Goldman Sachs believes there is no risk of a trade war, expect some trade agreements, such as the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA) negotiations will only focus on improving United States manufacturing prospects, although Trump threatened to impose punitive tariffs of foreign, but more war.
4. the rebound in emerging market
Recent emerging market pressure for Trump was elected, but not until next year, United States economy, and when interest rates rise, assets such as emerging market stocks will do well.
5. the currency devaluated to next year
Devaluation of the Renminbi artificially, such as sudden devaluation last August will continue next year, expected offshore over the next 12 months fell to 7.3 against one US dollar, its depreciation forecasts bigger than markets expected.
Goldman's full cut the Yuan-dollar forecast: 3 months, 6 months and 12 months in the offshore renminbi-dollar forecast down to 7.00, 7.15, and 7.3, respectively, 6.7, 6.8 and before 7.00. In addition, the end of 2018 and 2019 in the Bank at the end of the Yuan-dollar forecast down to 7.6 and 7.65, original 7.3; 2020 in the Bank at the end of the Yuan is expected to be demoted to 7.70. Recommends the adoption of 12-month non-deliverable far meeting long on USD/offshore, price target to 7.3, stop to 6.75.
6. Japan introduced innovative monetary policy
Japan's Central Bank introduced the "yield curve" system, predicts there will be a wave of innovation in monetary policy, is expected to have more similar to "loan" scheme out.
7. the American out of the recession
As the global economy was on solid ground and oil prices since February lows, American will go out next year, "declining revenue" p 500 companies operating profit per share next year, up 10%, and p 500 target of 2,200 points by the end of next year.
8. developed country inflation heating up
In addition to United States, but expected from China, Japan, and Europe will increase public expenditure, these potential inflationary pressures in the economy picked up.
9. credit default control
Although weaker corporate balance sheets, but next year United States recession risks are low, expected default rate will be controlled.
10. fed tightening
Taking into account the Trump promises a massive fiscal stimulus, the Fed will need to speed up the tightening in response to financial market conditions to relax. However, whether conditions in the financial markets could ease next year is still unknown.
3
You might say: "Oh, this is expert analysis, the experts do not represent State policy, want the Government to be trusted! ”
Since you asked in good faith, then I will relent and say to you:
Policies for regulating the housing market will continue into next year, or even 2018
National Bureau of statistics Liu Jianwei of senior statisticians noted that the city, with the adjusted credit policies have been around since October, November 21 the Central Bank cut interest rates policy overlay effects had a positive impact on real estate sales, November 70 cities in newly-built commercial housing turnover in October on amplification, high for the year, further narrowing in the decline in prices. But because of the higher base of house prices over the same period last year, prices in November year remained on a downtrend.
This is the truth, data support, credible guarantee!
Experienced many "Wolf", whether it is real estate companies or individuals, have been very complacent. "In the history of the most restrictive regulation", many people disdain said, this is just a "crying wolf". Indeed, in the past, none of the data does not indicate, control is adjusted higher and higher. However, this very calm and sometimes foolish and even scary. Longer term, China's stock market is up, but if you peak last year buy now must be very painful.
Don't always talk about acid again!
Each regulation is a shuffling, dealing with the right business will become more powerful and unable to support businesses, then see the next spring. How to survive the winter, for it is life and death issues.
This regulation is the central deployment, will not end soon.
930 after regulation, someone throws down China's economy, real estate is the mainstay of the economy and industry, therefore, the regulation will soon be of the opinion. This view with the stock market crash last year ended a month or two just looking forward to the next bull market--guilty of infantilism.
First, this regulation is a unified plan of action
By 2013, market regulation by the central level uniform policies and enforcement. This allows step, powerful, disadvantage is that victimizes the innocent. Therefore, after 2013, housing authority and responsibility was delegated to the place, so that by the policy address.
However, China's economy is "County competition" (also known as the "local competition"), a well-known economist Zhang Wuchang think County between the County competition in land use is the root cause of China's rapid economic growth.
Under this structure, the Chief Executive is tasked with two roles: one is the economic development function, the second is social management function, but in the past more than 30 years, the former is usually greater than the latter. Therefore, the Chief Executive is in fact political entrepreneurs.
After the tax-sharing system, the rights and responsibilities of local government wrong, local economic development and no money, only land. Steven said that no money from land today in Shenzhen, not found on the map of the world.
Therefore, good intentions--because of the decentralization of power to local governance. However, for much-needed funds to develop the local economy, to facilitate their promotion of political entrepreneurs, control cut hands and feet. Previously, some hot cities also issued a number of policies, but stay in the spare itch, is a good example. Therefore, the subsequent 21 cities have announced control-intensive policies, there is no uniform deployment, is impossible.
Second, turnover has fallen sharply, prices will drop
Market regulation has been like "ultimate measure"-just need to scoop out only a short boil. Therefore, the restriction of credit policy limit, there are people questioning – the purchase price policy became the early warning signals, limit price gains guaranteed token.
However, objectively speaking, if there is no regulation, perhaps House prices rose even faster. At present, if seen from the transaction data, this regulation has already on the property market cooling or freezing effect. And policy enforcement are strengthened, without relaxing trend.
Centaline property research center statistics show, October 1-30th, 22 cities affected by the new deal, markedly dropped in trading volume, or 40% or so. Total 54 cities nationwide agency real estate residential 270164, 15% less than in September, and after entering the November volume to shrink further.
Regulation effects of a delay. Given that this regulation is the most severe since the 2011, affecting the widest range of real estate at a time to tighten regulation, strength, is expected to have a greater impact. Along with control measures, further cooling of the property market.
4
Please keep until 2018 to prepare.
Son made the most mistakes upside down whipped, not beat him to death, but the son is too naughty, always sticking to end. Real estate is the son. So, when again favored son?
Some experts believe that real estate is the pillar industry of China, given the current economic trend of an l, long suffered by the housing downturn only a maximum of 9 months, and 6 months later, control the negative effect will be large, so by March next year will maintain control of highhanded, finished March held two sessions in April, will start to loose ... ...
Act of love without really Ah!
5
For developers, deadlocked with the Government there is not an option. After all, now is the time, price is not an economic problem, but a symbol of politics. When will exit with an aura of administrative intervention? Only when prices really drop.
If developers want a healthy and stable property market, it can only be cut.
Good at surrendering, leaving behind a Millennium old town Prague. You finish it.
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