This article for the author in Huazhong University of science and the Federation of overseas Chinese entrepreneurs organized the sixth "Zhang peigang Award for outstanding achievements in development economics" prize-giving ceremony and 2016 on the China economic development forum speech
I talked about today's topic is not a macro issue, but a question of industrial development. I want to talk about five questions, the first two questions is about the development of electric bicycles, two issues the development of electric vehicles. Development of electric bicycles since 1995 started, it States there is no point, no investment are entrepreneurs for uncertain future determination identify market opportunities, independent investment developed. From about 1995 to 2015 through four stages:
First, from 1995 to 1999 to pilot stage, this stage which revolves around four major components (motor, batteries, controllers, Chargers), these four components for research and development, pilot also entered the consumer's perspective.
Secondly, large-scale stage, at this stage there have been three major production bases, one in Tianjin, Wuxi, Zhejiang. You can see that this is a very important case that create demand. 2005 has 9 million units of production scale well, as the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter.
Third, from 2006 to 2013, can be said to be ultra high speed development stage. 2013 probably more than 2,900 vehicles, and this time the battery had a great break, and improves the efficiency of 35%, and the price is down a lot. And increase the rate of lead batteries, lithium-ion batteries are starting to appear, you can see it has developed very fast.
By the year 2015, I feel that although production reached 32 million units, but sales fell by 20%, because many cities began to limit line seizure, creates artificial market problems. At this stage you can see Emma, Masakichi (sound) business, which is growing. But also have 700 small and medium entities close to bankruptcy. This stage is also the emergence of new phenomena, a lithium-ion battery is also a great deal of development, the second is light. From its design to raw material, reducing its weight and increase its power. Beginning in the third new phenomenon is intelligent, has a variety of new features, and is not a mere transport tool. General development process is the electric bikes who will do it? I call it grass-roots development, popular mount. First, more than more than 200 million migrant workers, of which 100 million is his very important means of transport to and from work. There are now 60 million of the remaining personnel in rural areas. They transport very important tools that rely on electric bicycles. Third, as we all know these years selling online shopping fast, just now we have seen just after 11, double 11 sales this year is quite large. However, shipping mainly by electric bicycle, the logistics industry is very important. City child nursery school is a very important means of transport to and from work, and now has 80 million poor people in rural areas, is an important tool for 80 million people out of poverty. There are individual entrepreneurs of the city, was that he was an important helper.
Judging from several users, I call it populist mounts.
Now look at the development of electric vehicles, electric cars and electric bikes almost simultaneously, and "85" started, in 2001 the 863 special plan, "Eleven-Five" strategies of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Can be seen in the 2000ji national published rules of the production admission administration of new energy vehicles, and arranged 10 billion yuan to support the Fund. Also because of this, 2008 called the first year of new energy vehicles, in 2009 there was a great development. And from 2010 the Government efforts to increase support for new energy vehicles, way to start a private purchases of new energy vehicles, the pilot from five cities now expanded to 27 cities. And in order to develop the two-term Prime Minister, presided over a State Council Executive meeting to discuss the development of new energy vehicles. Executive meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, said: "by 2015 we have 500,000 by 2020, 5 million cars and components in all aspects to reach more advanced levels". Prime Minister Li keqiang presides over the discussions: "to support the development of new energy vehicles, no limits no restrictions. "While General Motors approaches that limit restriction of a lottery, but for new energy vehicles was encouraged.
2015 published on "2016-2020 new energy vehicles used fiscal policy", like Beijing, XI ' an and a total of 17 provinces and introduced to support this policy, State subsidies, and proportion of subsidies, it is probably 0.5:1. Subsidies less half of the country, much the same as State subsidies. Strongly supported by the Government, 2015 new energy electric vehicles reached 390,000 vehicles, this is about the development of electric vehicles.
I this place on supporting national development policies had a comb, a 2007 new energy subsidy of 500,000 yuan per bus, light vehicles and commercial vehicles new energy subsidy of 60,000 yuan. 2010 new energy vehicle allowance determined in accordance with battery energy, subsidy of 3000 Yuan per kilowatt hour. 2013-2015 is based on mileage standards to support, at 100 km-150 km mileage, subsidize 30,005. 150-250 subsidy of 50,000, 250 km above subsidy of 60,000.
2016 or mileage allowance, but probably by 5000 dollars.
2016 2017-2018 20%, cut by 2020 was 40%, after 2020 to cancel. There is also a State in September 2014-December 2017, on the purchase of new energy vehicles increased purchases of motor vehicles for free, I think in countries all over the world in the development of new energy vehicles under Government support for it, I think it is understandable. Under the Government's policy support, also contributed to the development of new energy vehicles. However, has also produced a series of questions. Those are good cheat fill development situation of new energy subsidies according to the investigation started in January this year, released on September 8 the first lied to complement the car's list of five cars, five companies this is no lie to make up 1 billion. According to the list of internal subsidies has investigated more than 90 companies, 72 companies cheated up 9.3 billion. Two days before the announcement on the stock market, said receiving the new energy car cheat up penalties, probably lost a couple million, we can take a look at its development. The fourth question to compare urban public transport, is a public transportation is a car, an electric bike, a comparison of the three, large volume low cost buses, way less. More automobile roads, buses cannot solve the last mile problem. Cars may not be traffic about four or five people, it's way more. Two electric bike, pollution also can be said to be small, I have some data, I'm afraid a total electricity, urban transport is a very important issue. According to Shenzhen's information about bus 7.8% 20% travel accounting for road. 50% car 20% road, electric bikes are 50%, 20%, this is a road.
Mortality rate, mortality rate of over a kilometer car 1.89, motorcycle was 1.76 1.74 for electric bikes, its mortality rate is relatively small. There is also a very important indicator, we are developing electric vehicles and electric bike is very important issue is to solve the problem of pollution from emitters, look a bus was 4.14 on carbon emissions, car is 20.07, motorcycle is 5.75, electric bicycle is 1.2. So, from its carbon emissions it is relatively low, this is our condition to do some comparative analysis of issues.
Now since the electric vehicle state support it is understandable, but to limit line seizure I think electric bicycles is unreasonable, seizing conditions about limiting first started from Guangzhou, Shenzhen of the most powerful, beginning with more than 600 pieces of road, is now a comprehensive restrictions. Electric tricycle that makes Shenzhen Express does not hasten the delivery of mail, one day Hangzhou also investigated 1454, restrictions in Beijing, I saw at the Red Gate area seized an electric tricycle.
Why is seized? I think there are three reasons:
First, GDP and fiscal revenue considerations, because relatively high EV value of its GDP and fiscal revenue, electric bicycles are relatively small, it is a consideration.
Second, the city determined to style, so of course electric style, electric bicycle is not so magnificent, so to limit line seizure.
Third, the kidnapping of our industrial policy is a strong group, we see that electric vehicles are some of the big companies, even State-owned company, is said to be a fool up there of State-owned enterprises. So, kidnapped by strong group policies, for such a grass-roots development of enterprise naturally disadvantaged.
We need to discuss this issue, the development of various industries should have equal rights, from personal travel also should have equal rights. What tools do I use walking, it was my own choice, I should be on the road with my exercise of rights. Electric bicycles due to technical reasons of course not on the highway, it is very clear. So, I think from the limit line seizure, contrary to the equal rights of industrial development, also limit the rights of individual freedom. So it is a problem.
But national for the development of electric bicycle I think is necessary, and that management should first set national standards. Now that the national standard was developed in 1999, you know by the end of 1999 was its pilot. Provisions of that time developed many irrational, unreasonable requirements must have a bicycle, for example, now see many bicycles, is no impediment. Battery free flow (sound) is not reasonable, since it is now provided at that time should change. But the new table out spot, why not? A very important reason is that so many things our Department. This thing is the little things, if it is a decentralized, the State's rights cannot be delegated, I think this idea has a problem. Should be under the direction of the country through its industry association standards, States to ratify. However, the Association opened 22 seminars, wrote 17 drafts, finally is interested, can see this Administration I think is very problematic.
Electric bikes appeared, the city's traffic has one more thing, electric bike in the middle of traffic I feel that I have a problem. That is its violation of rules of the road are two of the most important: first, retrograde; second, ran a red light.
Because its small goals is very flexible, so careless violation. This may be the most important issue, but also limit line seizure only under. But as we can see, not only electric bicycle violations, violations of the car lot, even a cover cards are a lot of things, this is not surprising, does not limit line seizure of truth. I think it can also license management, and why? We think about when our car was less, we all use bicycle, bike, we have the implementation of licence management, electric bicycle why can it not do? It now instead of the bike instead of the motorcycle was an important tool, I think it is possible.
I think we of Chengguan only will seized, only will confiscated, a is important of reasons this is a lazy political of approach, a most simple most incompetence of approach, I banned has you, not let you road, I think this no, we should in this process in the trying to solution it of problem, if even this problem are solution can't, description we of city government incompetence.
But our urban traffic management assistant, police, I feel that this is the approach of Government passed on the responsibility, is reducing the level of management approaches.
Because these Management Assistant, police do not have to undergo a rigorous training, low level of law enforcement. If our staff is not enough, there also a lot of people in need of jobs, why not add to the appropriate management personnel are trained to replace the police, Management Assistant does? Such an argument is not.
According to the circumstances, I support the abolition of the limit line seizure, get it through new roads to strengthen the city's traffic management, this as an opportunity to cultivate habits of each individual compliance, the Chinese people long bad habit of not abiding by the rules. I think this is an opportunity you can do. Therefore, I support the abolition.
Why?
One, now seized the limit line is the power of government officials. Many self-employed as his management tool, I see a lot of Chengguan there later, cars pulled away on his tricycle to destroy. Why do you? He had no license, why don't you help him handle license first and then go to him you say he's wrong, you give him to operate where you go to management we are not like this, only known autocratic right to know, without knowing the service. This type of management is a kind of sport management, this type of movement regardless of the management for a while after, so spoiled Manager also condone the crime, cannot form a habit that members abide by the rules comply with the law.
Second, this randomness is too large. Shenzhen was an absurdity to this degree, it remove electric tricycle, and finally from 5 companies all use electric two-wheelers to delivery. You can check out tricycle safety, cargo, or a two-wheeled vehicle loading, our Government officials can violate the rules of common sense.
Third, the management level is in the middle of the game, you cancelled your game objects, how to raise the management level? So I let it grow, strengthening the management, rather than cancel it. But people are free to choose their own means of transportation.
No comments:
Post a Comment