Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Currency breakdown of "iron bottom" a big wave of exchange losses of listed companies billions

Not every quarterly releases due to exchange rate gains and losses, from the three quarterly reports of listed companies to disclose data, present the publication of exchange gains and losses in the company, Minsheng Bank exchange rate loss is most serious.
On November 15, the middle price of RMB 6.8495, adjustable off 204 points, also fell for 8th day, its lowest since December 8, 2008.
Since the Yuan was "into the basket", the middle price of RMB has fallen to 2.7%. Face the RMB fell, listed companies will experience fire and ice situation of two days. Part of export-oriented industries such as textiles and garments, construction decoration enterprises said devaluation of the Renminbi will bring positive impact to the enterprise. Exchange rate losses to the airlines for holding large amounts of dollars debt, resulting in lower profits.
According to statistics from flush from 2016 so far this year, nearly 80 listed companies have issued foreign exchange hedging or currency forward exchange settlement and sales business announcements.
Big airlines against exchange losses
On November 11, the middle price of RMB 6.8115, below 6.8 for the first time in more than six years. Earlier the market are of the view that year the Yuan will fluctuate around 6.80, but this is thought to "iron bottom" was easily penetrated, caught the market off guard. Facing the rapid devaluation of the Yuan, and BOC Hong Kong Liu Hong, a senior researcher interviewed by 21st century business Herald reporter said earlier, United States is expected to raise rates by the end of the strong, the devaluation of the Yuan to a certain pressure, but overall, the Renminbi depreciated basis does not exist.
"With the internationalization trend of RMB exchange rate, degree of rise and fall is normal. Although the depreciation of the Yuan against the dollar this year has presented, but relative to a basket of currencies, Yuan was strong, investors do not have to worry about. "To throw Morgan (Hong Kong) Zhang Shuwan, investment Director for 21st century business Herald said.
The evening of November 4, Central Bank forwarded China network commentator article says October index continues to remain basically stable RMB exchange rate. Said on October 31, 2016, CFETS RMB exchange rate index, and BIS reference currency basket, the SDR currency basket of the Renminbi exchange rate indices were steady rise slightly, display the Yuan to a basket of currencies exchange rate remained stable.
Although the market believes future dollar range is limited, but currency fluctuations have had a significant impact on listed companies.
According to flush statistics, exchange losses of listed companies in 2015 as high as 48.7 billion yuan, which were the two hardest-hit areas of the aviation industry and the real estate industry, a loss of 17.9 billion yuan and 11.9 billion yuan, respectively. The Yuan traded in 2014, exchange rate losses of 3.7 billion yuan.
2015 exchange losses the largest three companies respectively, China Southern Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines is the airline sector swept, three companies exchange losses are 5.702 billion yuan, 5.156 billion yuan and 4.987 billion yuan, exchange rate losses of three airlines with current year profit.
This year, it's a continuation of the trend.
Air China, for example, devaluation of the Renminbi against the dollar in the first half of this year by about 2.1%, the company produces 1.698 billion yuan exchange rate losses; 1% depreciation of RMB, the company will reduce net profit of 482 million Yuan. China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines mimicked, a foreign exchange loss of 1.36 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan in the first half.
Who has the effective hedging moves?
Not every quarterly releases due to exchange rate gains and losses, judging from the three quarterly disclosure of the data, the current disclosure of company information exchange gains and losses, Minsheng Bank exchange rate loss is most serious, as at the end of the third quarter foreign exchange loss is 1.829 billion yuan, there are 230 million Yuan foreign exchange gains at the end of last year.
The Minsheng Bank had said in a conference call, not biased, don't look at the exchange gains and losses. Exchange rate gains and losses, investment income and changes in fair value gains and losses, three reports together to truly reflect the foreign exchange, precious metals, and exposure to fluctuations in the market.
Beijing, Fund Manager at a large fund companies on the 21st century business Herald reporters influence of RMB exchange rate lower on listed companies can be said to be fire and ice two days. Export-oriented textile and garment, construction and decoration are positively impact enterprise; paper and other industries the Fortune or misfortune to adding due to exchange rate fluctuations appear, expand the scale of exports at the same time, under rising cost pressures from imports of raw materials and exchange rate losses to the airlines for holding large amounts of dollars debt, resulting in lower profits.
Shen Wan Hongyuan Li Huiyong, Chief Analyst admits, cannot simply think that devaluation is a bad thing. "The exchange rate depends on the country's economic growth, and monetary policy. Price is the most effective tool to balance supply and demand in the market, had more balance through interest rates. After 8·11 moved in now, also serves as a tool, and broaden the scope of monetary policy, increase economic resilience, is good for China's economy. ”
Li Huiyong believes that if the devaluation of the Renminbi makes China's economy can stabilise earlier, which will contribute to the healthy development of the capital market.
Some listed companies also believe that devaluation would have good for business. Vosges stake, for instance, said that third-quarter revenue rose 7.04%, significantly faster than the first half of the long term trend of devaluation for the company's export business is good.
CITIC's study also noted that the control performance of the Bohai Sea will also benefit from the devaluation of the Renminbi. The semi-annual shows, overseas revenue accounted for more than 71.6%, estimating foreign assets accounted for about 70%. Third-quarter points when it is estimated that about 12.18 billion overseas income, net overseas assets of about 20.4 billion. Because of foreign assets and liabilities are matched, the dollar 10%, bringing reports income and net assets denominated in 10%. At the end of six months, control in the Bohai Sea will be increased for foreign leasing companies increased capital investment of over $800 million, that part of the equity investment and enjoy dollar value-added benefits.
Because the negative impact of exchange rate depreciation company also actively help themselves, part of the listed company has been or is about to carry out foreign exchange hedging operations, to avoid exchange losses from devaluation.
Chenming paper said, through import and export company attempting to open a long-term letters of credit, trade financing and interest-rate swaps and other measures to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, which had little effect on future operations of the company's overall operating.
Jerry shares also said more foreign currency settlement business of the company. Meanwhile, the company, overseas mergers and acquisitions and business expansion of overseas investment, foreign exchange rate, interest rate and foreign currency risk of devaluation of the dollar, sharply higher. Based on the above, to avoid the risk of foreign exchange market to prevent the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the company, and in 2016 the company intends to continue to carry out foreign exchange hedging operations, the scale of business of not more than 2.5 billion yuan or the equivalent in foreign currency.

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